ValueFinder Football | Premier League Weekend Preview | 25–28 April 2026
ValueFinder Beta — identifying mispriced probabilities, not predicting winners.
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What is ValueFinder Football?
ValueFinder Football uses expected goals (xG) data to model the true probability of each Premier League fixture going Over or Under 2.5 goals — and compares that against what the bookmaker odds are implying.
Every team carries a set of data-driven labels updated each gameweek: traits like High Scorer, Leaky Defence, Goals Drought, and In Form Attack that reflect current form rather than reputation.
The analysis below covers every remaining fixture in Matchday 34. Where the gap between our model probability and the market falls in our validated 4-6pp sweet spot, we flag it as a value selection. But the primary purpose of this report is the fixture-by-fixture breakdown — understanding which games the data says are likely to produce goals, which are likely to be tight, and where the market may have it wrong.
Fulham vs Aston Villa Saturday 26 April
Fulham 🔥 <In Form Attack>
Aston Villa 🧱 <Defensive Block> · 📉 <Goals Drought> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>
Model Over: 57.9% | Market Over: 55.2% | Gap: +2.64pp | BTTS: 60.5%
Villa’s label combination here is one of the bleakest in the division right now. <Defensive Block> means both their attack and defence xG ratings sit in the bottom half of the league. <Goals Drought> tells you they have gone Under 2.5 in four or more consecutive matches. <Cold Attack> confirms their recent output has dropped below even their season average.
Fulham are the brighter side on current form, carrying <In Form Attack>, but Villa’s defensive structure tends to suppress games rather than open them up. The model sees a slight Over lean at +2.64pp but this falls comfortably below our 4pp threshold. The BTTS figure at 60.5% is the most interesting number here — Fulham’s attack may find a way through, but Villa scoring at the other end looks less likely given the data.
Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Saturday 26 April
Liverpool 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>
Crystal Palace 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>
H2H 🔒 <H2H Low Scoring>
Model Over: 87.0% | Market Over: 63.7% | Gap: +23.33pp | BTTS: 83.3%
The standout fixture of the weekend analytically. Both teams carry an identical label set — <High Scorer>, <High Variance>, <In Form Attack> — which the model translates into an extraordinary 87.0% Over probability. The gap against the market is +23.33pp, the largest in the gameweek by some distance. However this sits well above our 6pp cap and does not qualify as a value flag. Our backtest showed that gaps of this size produce near-zero ROI because the market prices the edge out before kickoff — and the <H2H Low Scoring> history here suggests the market may have good reason for its position. We display it transparently but do not act on it. What it does tell you is that both teams are in genuinely excellent attacking form right now, and if you are watching one game this weekend purely for entertainment value, this is the one.
West Ham vs Everton Saturday 26 April
West Ham 🧱 <Defensive Block> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>
Everton 🔥 <In Form Attack> H2H 🔒 <H2H Low Scoring>
Model Over: 41.9% | Market Over: 51.0% | Gap: -9.12pp | BTTS: 46.1%
The model diverges significantly from the market here — 41.9% Over probability against a market implying 51.0%, a -9.12pp gap in the Under direction. West Ham carry <Defensive Block>, their attack and defence xG both sitting in the bottom half of the division, and the <H2H Low Scoring> history between these two sides reinforces the picture.
Both teams show <In Form Attack> which softens things slightly, but the underlying structure of this fixture points firmly toward a tight, low-scoring game. The gap falls outside our validated band in the Under direction so no flag — but if you follow Under markets independently, the data here is telling a consistent story.
Wolves vs Tottenham Saturday 26 April
Wolves 🧱 <Defensive Block> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>
Tottenham 🔴 <Leaky Defence> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>
H2H ⚔️ <H2H High Scoring>
Model Over: 57.6% | Market Over: 57.8% | Gap: -0.23pp | BTTS: 56.5%
The model and market are in near-perfect agreement at essentially zero gap — a rare occurrence that suggests this is a fairly priced fixture. The label combination makes it fascinating to analyse though. Tottenham’s <Leaky Defence> and the <H2H High Scoring> history point toward goals, but both sides carry <Cold Attack> and Wolves are a <Defensive Block>. <High Variance> on both teams means this could produce a 0-0 or a 4-3 with roughly equal plausibility. The model sees no edge here and neither does the market. One to watch rather than act on.
Arsenal vs Newcastle Saturday 26 April
Arsenal 🟢 <High Scorer> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>
Newcastle 🟢 <High Scorer> · 📉 <Goals Drought> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>
Model Over: 65.4% | Market Over: 60.6% | Gap: +4.77pp | BTTS: 63.4% | Conviction: -1 ⚠️
★ Value flag — watchlist only
The model finds a +4.77pp gap that clears our 4-6pp threshold, but the conviction score of -1 means the label system is actively contradicting the flag. Both teams carry <High Scorer> ratings on rolling xG but both also show <Cold Attack> — their recent output has dropped below their season averages.
Newcastle add <Goals Drought> on top, meaning they have gone Under 2.5 in four or more consecutive matches. The tension here is between strong underlying xG numbers and poor recent form. The market at 60.6% is already pricing in a high-scoring game — the question is whether Arsenal and Newcastle’s attacks are about to bounce back or whether the cold form is structural. We are not staking on a -1 conviction flag, but the model edge is real and worth monitoring. Team news before kickoff matters here — if key forwards are available on both sides the case becomes more compelling.
Man United vs Brentford Monday 28 April
Man United 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>
Brentford 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>
H2H ⚔️ <H2H High Scoring>
Model Over: 65.2% | Market Over: 61.4% | Gap: +3.86pp | BTTS: 63.9%
A high-energy fixture on paper that just misses our threshold at +3.86pp. Man United are one of the stronger attacking sides in the division right now — <High Scorer>, <High Variance>, and <In Form Attack> is a compelling combination heading into a home fixture. Brentford carry the same <High Scorer> and <High Variance> labels but their <Cold Attack> rating is a mild concern, suggesting recent output has dipped below their season average. The <H2H High Scoring> history and United at Old Trafford tend to produce open games. Worth monitoring — if odds drift before Monday the gap could move into the value band.
Matchday 34 — Selections
No confirmed selections this matchday. The only flag in the validated band carries a conviction score of -1 — the label system contradicts the model signal. Publishing a selection where our own conviction scoring disagrees is not something we will do. We hold and we watch.
⚠️ Watchlist: Arsenal vs Newcastle — Over 2.5 @ 1.65 Model: 65.4% | Market: 60.6% | Gap: +4.77pp | Conviction: -1
The model edge is genuine but <Cold Attack> on both sides and <Goals Drought> on Newcastle are hard to ignore. Check team news before Saturday — a clean bill of health for attacking players on both sides improves the picture significantly.
CLV tracking is live from this matchday. Closing odds and results will be logged post-settlement and published in future reports.