Valspar 2026 | Two Selections from the ValueFinder Beta Model
ValueFinder Beta — identifying mispriced probabilities, not predicting winners
This is ValueFinder's first live report.
ValueFinder is a probability model. Each week it processes player performance data, applies a weighted scoring formula, and converts the output into win probabilities — calibrated so the full field sums to 100%, the same way a real betting market works.
Those model probabilities are then compared against what the Betfair Exchange market is implying through the available odds. When the model believes a player's true probability of winning is meaningfully higher than what the odds suggest, that's a value flag.
The model is in beta. It will get smarter. Data sources will improve, weights will be refined based on what the evidence shows over time. But the core philosophy won't change: we are not predicting winners. We are identifying mispriced probabilities.
This week's event is the Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort, Palm Harbor, Florida. March 19–22. $9.1M purse.
The model has two selections.
Jacob Bridgeman - Entry Odds 25.0
Model probability: 8.38%
Market implied probability: 4.00%
Probability gap: +4.38pp
Model fair odds: 11.93
Bridgeman is the breakout story of the 2026 PGA Tour season. He won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in February — his first PGA Tour title — holding off Rory McIlroy after building a six-shot lead through the third round and leading the field in strokes gained putting. He followed that with four top-10 finishes in 2026 including a T5 at The Players Championship last week, where he was a perfect 39 for 39 on putts inside 10 feet through the first 44 holes.
He also has direct course history at Copperhead, finishing third here in 2025.
His 2026 season statistics rank first in the field on SG Total. The Copperhead course profile — which the model weights heavily toward approach play, precision iron work, and short-game resilience through the Snake Pit closing stretch — fits Bridgeman's game well.
The market is pricing Bridgeman at 25.0, implying a 4.0% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 8.38% — a gap of +4.38 percentage points. At the model's fair odds of 11.93, the entry price of 25.0 represents significant value if the model's probability estimate is correct.
Nicolai Højgaard — Entry odds 34.0
Model probability: 8.16%
Market implied probability: 2.94%
Probability gap: +5.22pp
Model fair odds: 12.25
Højgaard is one of the most quietly consistent ball-strikers in the game. He came into 2026 with five top-15 finishes in his previous seven starts across the PGA and DP World Tours. This season he opened with a T22 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open, and at that point led the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee. He has two top-10 finishes from 11 measured rounds in 2026, and his SG Total this season ranks second in the Valspar field.
The Copperhead course profile suits him well. The course rewards sustained ball-striking quality and approach precision, with accuracy through tight tree-lined fairways and composure under pressure at the finishing stretch. These are precisely the areas where Højgaard's numbers are strongest.
The market is pricing him at 34.0 — a reflection of his world ranking (No. 52) and the absence of a PGA Tour win rather than his current 2026 form. The model has him at 8.16%, a probability gap of +5.22pp over the market — the largest value signal in the field this week.
Model fair odds: 12.25. Entry at 34.0.
What we're tracking this week
Beyond the result — which is always variance over a small sample — there are two things that will tell us whether this model is working as intended.
Closing Line Value: Did the odds shorten between publication and Thursday tee-off? If Bridgeman moves from 25.0 toward 15.0 and Højgaard from 34.0 toward 20.0, the market has agreed with the model's assessment. That is positive Closing Line Value — a primary measure of edge in probabilistic betting — regardless of where either player finishes on Sunday.
Calibration: Over many selections, does a player the model assigns 8% probability win roughly 8% of the time? This is the long-run test of whether the model is accurate. One week proves nothing. The accumulation of CLV data and results over the coming months will be the real evidence.
Both selections were logged Monday 17th March at the Betfair Exchange back prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.
ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.