Valero Texas Open 2026 | Two Selections from the ValueFinder Beta Model
ValueFinder Beta — identifying mispriced probabilities, not predicting winners
This is ValueFinder’s third live report.
Before this week’s selections, a review of week two.
Week 2 Review: Houston Open
Three selections — Ryan Gerard (55.0), Shane Lowry (50.0), Kurt Kitayama (35.0).
Lowry finished inside the top 20. Gerard made the cut. Kitayama missed the cut. No winners — at these prices across three selections that is always the most likely outcome.
The number that matters: 4 from 5 selections have beaten the closing line across the first two weeks of ValueFinder. Gerard entered at 55.0 and closed at 50.0. Lowry entered at 50.0 and closed at 45.0. Kitayama entered at 35.0 and closed at 35.0 — flat, the only selection that didn’t move in our favour.
A note on Nicolai Højgaard. ValueFinder selected him at Valspar in week one based on his ball-striking profile. He made the cut there. The following week at Houston — another approach-dominant course — he finished runner-up. He wasn’t a direct selection that week, but the skill profile the model identified is playing out. That’s what course DNA analysis is designed to surface.
This week’s event is the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course, San Antonio, Texas. April 3–6. $9.2M purse.
The model has two selections.
Davis Thompson — Entry Odds 101.0
Market implied probability: 1.0%
Model fair odds: 82.1
Thompson has been a consistent presence in the model’s positive gap column across multiple weeks. His all-round skill profile — solid across approach, total game and putting — fits TPC San Antonio well. The course DNA analysis across five years of data shows no single dominant skill at this venue. SG Total leads the correlations at 0.181, with approach and tee-to-green close behind. This rewards sustained all-round quality, which is precisely Thompson’s profile.
The market has him at 101.0, implying a 1.0% win probability. At the model’s fair odds of 82.1, the entry price of 101.0 represents value if the model’s estimate is correct.
John Parry — Entry Odds 201.0
Market implied probability: 0.5%
Model fair odds: 98.8
Parry carries the highest positive gap in this week’s full field output — the model rates him significantly above his market price. His all-round game suits a course that rewards sustained quality across all skill categories. At 201.0 his odds reflect limited tour wins and low profile rather than current skill level. The model sees a player whose true win probability is meaningfully higher than what the market implies.
The market is pricing Parry at 201.0, implying a 0.5% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.2% — a gap of +0.6 percentage points. At the model’s fair odds of 98.8, the entry price of 201.0 represents significant value if the model’s estimate is correct.
What we’re tracking this week
Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Thompson and Parry shorten between now and Thursday tee-off? If the market moves toward these selections, the model is finding signals the market comes to agree with. That is the evidence of edge — not whether they win on Sunday.
Calibration: Over many selections, do players the model identifies as underpriced outperform their market probability? This is a season-long question. The accumulation of CLV data and results over the coming months is the real evidence.
Both selections were logged Wednesday 1st April at the Skybet prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.
ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.