PGA Championship 2026 | Three Selections from the ValueFinder Model
ValueFinder — identifying mispriced probabilities
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ValueFinder Beta Golf Results
14 selections | 93% positive CLV rate | Avg CLV +0.67%
ROI: +187.3% on 57pts staked
This Week: PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club
Newtown Square, Pennsylvania | May 14–17 | Par 70, 7,394 yards
Aronimink is a Donald Ross design from 1928, reworked in recent years by Gil Hanse. It last hosted the PGA Championship in 1962, when Gary Player won the Wanamaker Trophy. The most recent PGA Tour event here was the 2018 BMW Championship, won by Keegan Bradley — the only modern elite-field reference point we have for this course.
This is a new venue for the model. No course DNA weighting has been applied — there is no historical SG correlation data for Aronimink in the ValueFinder database. The value flags this week are based on player skill profiles and DataGolf pre-tournament predictions alone, compared against market-implied probabilities.
What the course asks for: the green complexes are the defining feature. Elevated, contoured, and unforgiving — Donald Ross’s signature is on every approach shot. The greens slope away from the player, demanding precise entry angles and punishing anything that misses in the wrong direction. The bunker strategy creates awkward lies rather than simply sand faces to escape. Twelve par 4s form the backbone of the layout, and approach play is the separator. This is not a course where a hot putting week bails out a below-average iron game.
This Week’s Value Flags
Collin Morikawa — Entry Odds 40.5
Model: 3.6% | Market: 1.9% | Gap: +1.5pp | Fair odds: 29.7
Morikawa’s profile is built for what Aronimink demands. He is the best iron player of his generation by most measurable metrics — SG: Approach has been elite for five consecutive seasons, and his tee-to-green numbers rate him among the strongest in the field this model cycle. Two major wins (2020 PGA Championship, 2021 The Open), a runner-up at the 2021 Masters, and a top 10 at The Masters just five weeks ago.
The market has him at 40.5, implying 1.9% win probability. The model puts him at 3.6% — almost double. That gap reflects the model’s read that Morikawa’s baseline skill profile is being undervalued in a market where favourites like Scheffler absorb a disproportionate share of the probability weight. At a course that rewards iron play above most other skills, 40.5 looks significantly too long.
Gary Woodland — Entry Odds 131.2
Model: 1.7% | Market: 0.6% | Gap: +1.0pp | Fair odds: 61.9
Woodland is a former major champion — 2019 US Open at Pebble Beach. His game is built around length and a powerful iron game, and his ball-striking metrics rate him as a meaningful positive gap candidate this week. The market has him near the bottom of the market at 131.2; the model puts him closer to 1.7%. At those odds, the expected value implied by the gap is positive. The caveat is that Woodland has had injury concerns in recent seasons and his results are wide-ranging. Speculative, not high-conviction.
Andrew Putnam — Entry Odds 351.0
Model: 1.1% | Market: 0.2% | Gap: +0.8pp | Fair odds: 103.1
Putnam’s approach play metrics drive a positive gap on the model. At 351.0 the expected value calculation is positive on those numbers, but the gap partly reflects the model’s tendency to find value among lower-ranked players where the market applies less pricing attention.
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