Cadillac Championship 2026 | Three Selections from the ValueFinder Beta Model
ValueFinder Beta — identifying mispriced probabilities, not predicting winners
This is ValueFinder's sixth live report. The model is 14 selections in, 93% positive CLV rate, and sitting at +105.7pt ROI.
This week: Cadillac Championship Trump National Doral — Blue Monster Course | Miami, Florida May 1–4 | $20M purse
The Blue Monster at Doral returns to the PGA Tour schedule as a new event. It’s a long, demanding course — over 7,600 yards with water in play throughout. Unlike last week’s precision test at Harbour Town, Doral rewards elite ball-strikers and players with length off the tee. This week the model activated its length advantage flag — redistributing weight from putting toward off-the-tee for players in the top quartile for SG:OTT in the field. 19 of 71 players received the boost.
One caveat worth flagging — this is a brand new event at this venue, so there is no course history data in the ValueFinder database yet. The model is running on skill ratings, momentum, DataGolf predictions and the length advantage flag only. The course DNA component will build over time as results accumulate.
The model has three selections.
Ryan Gerard — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 100.0
Model probability: 1.6%
Market implied probability: 0.9%
Probability gap: +0.7pp
Model fair odds: 66.3
Gerard is a fixture in the ValueFinder positive gap column — the model has rated him above his market price in every single week of the season. His all-round skill profile suits a long, demanding course that rewards sustained ball-striking quality. At 100.0 on Betfair Exchange the three-market structure offers compelling returns even with the reduced top10 and top20 odds due to no cut.
The market is pricing Gerard at 100.0, implying a 0.9% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.6% — a gap of +0.6 percentage points.
J.J. Spaun — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 85.0
Model probability: 1.6%
Market implied probability: 1.1%
Probability gap: +0.5pp
Model fair odds: 64.6
Spaun received the length advantage boost this week — his SG:OTT ranks in the top quartile of the field, which the model weights more heavily at a course where driving creates scoring opportunities. His overall skill profile is solid and the model rates him above his market price at 85.0.
Alex Noren — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 190.0
Model probability: 1.3% Market implied probability: 0.5% Probability gap: +0.6pp Model fair odds: 91.3
Noren carries one of the highest probability gaps in the field this week. The model rates him significantly above his market price — a player whose underlying skill numbers suggest he is being treated as more of a longshot than the data warrants. At 190.0 the top-20 market offers strong asymmetric returns if the model’s assessment is correct.
What we’re tracking this week
Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Gerard, Spaun and Noren shorten between now and Thursday tee-off?
Calibration: 17 selections now logged across six weeks. The dataset is building. The evidence will speak for itself.
All three selections were logged Tuesday 28th April at Betfair Exchange prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.
ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.
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