This week: Cadillac Championship Trump National Doral — Blue Monster Course | Miami, Florida May 1–4 | $20M purse

The Blue Monster at Doral returns to the PGA Tour schedule as a new event. It’s a long, demanding course — over 7,600 yards with water in play throughout. Unlike last week’s precision test at Harbour Town, Doral rewards elite ball-strikers and players with length off the tee. This week the model activated its length advantage flag — redistributing weight from putting toward off-the-tee for players in the top quartile for SG:OTT in the field. 19 of 71 players received the boost.

One caveat worth flagging — this is a brand new event at this venue, so there is no course history data in the ValueFinder database yet. The model is running on skill ratings, momentum, DataGolf predictions and the length advantage flag only. The course DNA component will build over time as results accumulate.

The model has three selections.

Ryan Gerard — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 100.0

Model probability: 1.6%

Market implied probability: 0.9%

Probability gap: +0.7pp

Model fair odds: 66.3

Gerard is a fixture in the ValueFinder positive gap column — the model has rated him above his market price in every single week of the season. His all-round skill profile suits a long, demanding course that rewards sustained ball-striking quality. At 100.0 on Betfair Exchange the three-market structure offers compelling returns even with the reduced top10 and top20 odds due to no cut.

The market is pricing Gerard at 100.0, implying a 0.9% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.6% — a gap of +0.6 percentage points.

J.J. Spaun — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 85.0

Model probability: 1.6%

Market implied probability: 1.1%

Probability gap: +0.5pp

Model fair odds: 64.6

Spaun received the length advantage boost this week — his SG:OTT ranks in the top quartile of the field, which the model weights more heavily at a course where driving creates scoring opportunities. His overall skill profile is solid and the model rates him above his market price at 85.0.

Alex Noren — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 190.0

Model probability: 1.3% Market implied probability: 0.5% Probability gap: +0.6pp Model fair odds: 91.3

Noren carries one of the highest probability gaps in the field this week. The model rates him significantly above his market price — a player whose underlying skill numbers suggest he is being treated as more of a longshot than the data warrants. At 190.0 the top-20 market offers strong asymmetric returns if the model’s assessment is correct.

What we’re tracking this week

Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Gerard, Spaun and Noren shorten between now and Thursday tee-off?

Calibration: 17 selections now logged across six weeks. The dataset is building. The evidence will speak for itself.

All three selections were logged Tuesday 28th April at Betfair Exchange prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.

ValueFinder now has a web app! Check out full weekly reports at valuefinder.app

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What is ValueFinder Football?

ValueFinder Football uses expected goals (xG) data to model the true probability of each Premier League fixture going Over or Under 2.5 goals — and compares that against what the bookmaker odds are implying.

Every team carries a set of data-driven labels updated each gameweek: traits like High Scorer, Leaky Defence, Goals Drought, and In Form Attack that reflect current form rather than reputation.

The analysis below covers every remaining fixture in Matchday 34. Where the gap between our model probability and the market falls in our validated 4-6pp sweet spot, we flag it as a value selection. But the primary purpose of this report is the fixture-by-fixture breakdown — understanding which games the data says are likely to produce goals, which are likely to be tight, and where the market may have it wrong.

Fulham vs Aston Villa Saturday 26 April

Fulham 🔥 <In Form Attack>

Aston Villa 🧱 <Defensive Block> · 📉 <Goals Drought> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>

Model Over: 57.9% | Market Over: 55.2% | Gap: +2.64pp | BTTS: 60.5%

Villa’s label combination here is one of the bleakest in the division right now. <Defensive Block> means both their attack and defence xG ratings sit in the bottom half of the league. <Goals Drought> tells you they have gone Under 2.5 in four or more consecutive matches. <Cold Attack> confirms their recent output has dropped below even their season average.

Fulham are the brighter side on current form, carrying <In Form Attack>, but Villa’s defensive structure tends to suppress games rather than open them up. The model sees a slight Over lean at +2.64pp but this falls comfortably below our 4pp threshold. The BTTS figure at 60.5% is the most interesting number here — Fulham’s attack may find a way through, but Villa scoring at the other end looks less likely given the data.

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace Saturday 26 April

Liverpool 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>

Crystal Palace 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>

H2H 🔒 <H2H Low Scoring>

Model Over: 87.0% | Market Over: 63.7% | Gap: +23.33pp | BTTS: 83.3%

The standout fixture of the weekend analytically. Both teams carry an identical label set — <High Scorer>, <High Variance>, <In Form Attack> — which the model translates into an extraordinary 87.0% Over probability. The gap against the market is +23.33pp, the largest in the gameweek by some distance. However this sits well above our 6pp cap and does not qualify as a value flag. Our backtest showed that gaps of this size produce near-zero ROI because the market prices the edge out before kickoff — and the <H2H Low Scoring> history here suggests the market may have good reason for its position. We display it transparently but do not act on it. What it does tell you is that both teams are in genuinely excellent attacking form right now, and if you are watching one game this weekend purely for entertainment value, this is the one.

West Ham vs Everton Saturday 26 April

West Ham 🧱 <Defensive Block> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>

Everton 🔥 <In Form Attack> H2H 🔒 <H2H Low Scoring>

Model Over: 41.9% | Market Over: 51.0% | Gap: -9.12pp | BTTS: 46.1%

The model diverges significantly from the market here — 41.9% Over probability against a market implying 51.0%, a -9.12pp gap in the Under direction. West Ham carry <Defensive Block>, their attack and defence xG both sitting in the bottom half of the division, and the <H2H Low Scoring> history between these two sides reinforces the picture.

Both teams show <In Form Attack> which softens things slightly, but the underlying structure of this fixture points firmly toward a tight, low-scoring game. The gap falls outside our validated band in the Under direction so no flag — but if you follow Under markets independently, the data here is telling a consistent story.

Wolves vs Tottenham Saturday 26 April

Wolves 🧱 <Defensive Block> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>

Tottenham 🔴 <Leaky Defence> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>

H2H ⚔️ <H2H High Scoring>

Model Over: 57.6% | Market Over: 57.8% | Gap: -0.23pp | BTTS: 56.5%

The model and market are in near-perfect agreement at essentially zero gap — a rare occurrence that suggests this is a fairly priced fixture. The label combination makes it fascinating to analyse though. Tottenham’s <Leaky Defence> and the <H2H High Scoring> history point toward goals, but both sides carry <Cold Attack> and Wolves are a <Defensive Block>. <High Variance> on both teams means this could produce a 0-0 or a 4-3 with roughly equal plausibility. The model sees no edge here and neither does the market. One to watch rather than act on.

Arsenal vs Newcastle Saturday 26 April

Arsenal 🟢 <High Scorer> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>

Newcastle 🟢 <High Scorer> · 📉 <Goals Drought> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>

Model Over: 65.4% | Market Over: 60.6% | Gap: +4.77pp | BTTS: 63.4% | Conviction: -1 ⚠️

★ Value flag — watchlist only

The model finds a +4.77pp gap that clears our 4-6pp threshold, but the conviction score of -1 means the label system is actively contradicting the flag. Both teams carry <High Scorer> ratings on rolling xG but both also show <Cold Attack> — their recent output has dropped below their season averages.

Newcastle add <Goals Drought> on top, meaning they have gone Under 2.5 in four or more consecutive matches. The tension here is between strong underlying xG numbers and poor recent form. The market at 60.6% is already pricing in a high-scoring game — the question is whether Arsenal and Newcastle’s attacks are about to bounce back or whether the cold form is structural. We are not staking on a -1 conviction flag, but the model edge is real and worth monitoring. Team news before kickoff matters here — if key forwards are available on both sides the case becomes more compelling.

Man United vs Brentford Monday 28 April

Man United 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🔥 <In Form Attack>

Brentford 🟢 <High Scorer> · ⚡ <High Variance> · 🧊 <Cold Attack>

H2H ⚔️ <H2H High Scoring>

Model Over: 65.2% | Market Over: 61.4% | Gap: +3.86pp | BTTS: 63.9%

A high-energy fixture on paper that just misses our threshold at +3.86pp. Man United are one of the stronger attacking sides in the division right now — <High Scorer>, <High Variance>, and <In Form Attack> is a compelling combination heading into a home fixture. Brentford carry the same <High Scorer> and <High Variance> labels but their <Cold Attack> rating is a mild concern, suggesting recent output has dipped below their season average. The <H2H High Scoring> history and United at Old Trafford tend to produce open games. Worth monitoring — if odds drift before Monday the gap could move into the value band.

Matchday 34 — Selections

No confirmed selections this matchday. The only flag in the validated band carries a conviction score of -1 — the label system contradicts the model signal. Publishing a selection where our own conviction scoring disagrees is not something we will do. We hold and we watch.

⚠️ Watchlist: Arsenal vs Newcastle — Over 2.5 @ 1.65 Model: 65.4% | Market: 60.6% | Gap: +4.77pp | Conviction: -1

The model edge is genuine but <Cold Attack> on both sides and <Goals Drought> on Newcastle are hard to ignore. Check team news before Saturday — a clean bill of health for attacking players on both sides improves the picture significantly.

CLV tracking is live from this matchday. Closing odds and results will be logged post-settlement and published in future reports.

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ValueFinder is 14 selections in. The model has been live for five weeks. We have not had a single outright winner.

The ROI is +339.5%.

That number needs explaining — because it tells you something important about how this model works and why the market structure we use matters.

The RBC Heritage Selections

Three selections at Harbour Town this week. The model activated its precision advantage flag for the first time — redistributing weight from driving distance toward approach play for the top quartile of approach players in the field. Harbour Town is one of the shortest, tightest courses on tour. Accuracy wins here, not length.

What the Model Got Right

Kitayam

a was flagged on two signals — a consistent positive gap across multiple weeks, and the precision advantage boost at Harbour Town where his approach play profile ranked in the top quartile of the field. The model identified him as underpriced. He finished top 10.

McCarty carried the highest probability gap in the field at +0.7pp. The model rated him at 1.3% implied probability versus the market’s 0.4%. He finished top 20 at 270.0.

These aren’t flukes. They’re the model doing what it’s designed to do — finding players the market underestimates, backing them across three markets, and letting the asymmetric return structure do the work.

Next Week

Selections report publishes Tuesday. The model continues to improve — this week marked the first run using rolling SG ratings built from six weekly snapshots, replacing the static skill ratings that were limiting the model’s ability to capture current form.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. 14 selections, 5 weeks. This is not financial advice.

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This week: RBC Heritage Harbour Town Golf Links | Hilton Head Island, South Carolina April 17–20 | $20M purse

Harbour Town is the complete opposite of Augusta. Where the Masters rewards power and tee-to-green dominance, Harbour Town is one of the shortest, tightest courses on the PGA Tour. Accuracy off the tee, precision iron play into small greens, and short game quality determine the leaderboard here.

ValueFinder’s course DNA analysis confirms this — SG:Approach is the dominant skill at RBC Heritage with a correlation of 0.265. Off-the-tee is actually negative in the 2025 data (-0.036). This week the model activated its precision advantage flag for the first time — redistributing weight from sg_ott toward sg_app for the top quartile approach players in the field. 20 of 78 players received the boost.

The model has three selections this week.

Kurt Kitayama — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 160.0

Model probability: 1.4%

Market implied probability: 0.6%

Probability gap: +0.8pp

Model fair odds: 81.1

Kitayama is a precision ball-striker whose approach play profile fits Harbour Town well. He received the precision advantage boost this week — his sg_app ranks in the top quartile of the field. The model has rated him above his market price consistently across multiple weeks. At 160.0 the market is significantly underpricing his skill fit for this specific course type.

The market is pricing Kitayama at 160.0, implying a 0.6% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.4% — a gap of +0.6 percentage points. Model fair odds: 81.1.

Min Woo Lee — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 75.0

Model probability: 1.8%

Market implied probability: 1.3%

Probability gap: +0.5pp

Model fair odds: 54.5

Min Woo Lee is the shorter-priced selection this week — a player whose all-round game and approach play numbers suit a course that rewards precision over power. DataGolf has him at 2.5% implied probability versus the market’s 1.3% — the DataGolf signal is the stronger driver here, with the model blend agreeing. At 75.0 the return profile across the three markets is attractive.

The market is pricing Lee at 75.0, implying a 1.3% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.4% — a gap of +0.6 percentage points. Model fair odds: 54.5.

Matt McCarty — Entry Odds 270.0

Model probability: 1%

Market implied probability: 0.4%

Probability gap: +0.7pp

Model fair odds: 99.5

McCarty carries the highest probability gap in this week’s field at +0.7pp. The model rates him significantly above his market price — a player whose underlying skill numbers suggest he is being priced as more of a longshot than the data warrants. At 270.0 the top-20 market at 33.75 offers compelling asymmetric returns if the model’s assessment is correct.

The market is pricing McCarty at 270.0, implying a 0.4% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.3% — a gap of +0.7 percentage points. Model fair odds: 99.5.

What we’re tracking this week

Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Kitayama, Lee and McCarty shorten between now and Thursday tee-off?

Calibration: 14 selections now logged across five weeks. The dataset is building. The evidence will speak for itself.

All three selections were logged Tuesday 14th April at Betfair Exchange prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.

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Four selections at Augusta this week. Three finished in the top 20. One finished top 10. The model is 11 selections in and the numbers are building into something worth paying attention to.

The Selections

Week P&L: +31.75pt

Total P+L: +57.86pt

What Happened

Morikawa was the headline. Entered at 50.0 on Betfair Exchange, closed at 30.0 — the market moved significantly toward him between publication and tee-off. He finished top 10 at Augusta, returning +15.75pts on a 1pt top-10 stake. He was identified through the COURSE_HIST overlay — his SG:Approach of +0.957 is among the highest in the field, and ValueFinder’s course DNA analysis showed approach play as the third most correlated skill with finishing position at Augusta. The data pointed here. The result followed.

Knapp was the CLV story of the week. Entered at 90.0, closed at 40.0 — a 50-point compression in price by Thursday tee-off, representing +1.4% CLV. The market agreed emphatically with the selection. He finished top 20, returning +8.25pts.

McNealy was consistent with his pattern across the season — positive gap, positive CLV, positive result. Top 20 at 110.0 returning +10.75pts.

Gerard was the flat result. Entered at 360.0, closed at 350.0, made the cut. The model’s strongest gap flag of the week didn’t convert. That’s variance at longshot prices — the expected value case remains valid over a large sample.

What the Model Got Right

The Morikawa selection validates the course DNA approach directly. Augusta rewards approach play. The model assigned COURSE_HIST status based on five years of correlation data. Morikawa’s approach numbers are elite. He finished top 10. The chain from data to selection to result is exactly what the model is designed to produce.

The Knapp CLV signal (+1.4%) is the second strongest of the season after Thompson at Valero (+3.8%). Both selections saw the market move dramatically toward them after publication. Neither won. But the model is demonstrably finding players the market reprices — that’s the edge, and it’s showing up consistently.

91% of selections have beaten the closing line. The model is consistently identifying players the market comes to agree with after publication. The ROI is being driven by the top-20 market at longshot prices — asymmetric returns when longshots place.

Next Week: RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links, Hilton Head. A signature event, strong field. Odds expected Tuesday. ValueFinder selections report publishes Tuesday.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.

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What they won’t tell you is that a player who was already elite is measurably getting better right now — and that the course he’s walking into this week is one of the best fits in the world for his specific skill profile.

This is what the ValueFinder data shows heading into Augusta.

The Momentum Signal

Each Monday the ValueFinder model snapshots every player’s strokes gained components. From the last four snapshots, Fitzpatrick’s trajectory is one of the clearest in the entire Masters field.

His SG:Total has moved from +1.693 to +1.874 across the four weekly snapshots, a +0.181 improvement on an already exceptional base. That places him 7th in the Masters field for momentum score at +0.719, labelled <Surging> in the model.

This isn’t a one-week blip. It’s a consistent upward trend across multiple data points. A player who was already world-class is arriving at Augusta demonstrably sharper than he was a month ago.

The Course Fit

ValueFinder’s course DNA analysis is built from five years of SG correlation data across 312 player-rounds at Augusta. The findings challenge the conventional narrative:

Putting is Augusta’s weakest performance discriminator. Ball-striking — specifically tee-to-green quality and approach precision into small, sloped greens — is what separates the field.

Now look at Fitzpatrick’s skill profile:

• SG:Total — +1.693 (elite)

• SG:Approach — +0.673 (among the best in the field)

• SG:Tee to Green — +1.398 (top tier)

• SG:OTT — +0.422 (solid)

• SG:Putting — +0.295 (positive, not a drag)

He is strong across every component that Augusta rewards and has no meaningful weakness in the skills the course tests. His approach play specifically — the third most correlated skill with finishing position at Augusta — ranks among the highest in the entire field.

The Augusta Record

Top-10 rate of 33%. Performances trending upward with each visit. The course history score the model assigns him — built from historical finishing positions relative to field size — reflects a player whose Augusta results have been consistently solid and improving over time.

He has already demonstrated he can compete here. The question this week isn’t whether his game fits Augusta. The data answers that clearly. The question is whether the improving momentum takes him from contender to champion.

What the Model Says

The model currently has Fitzpatrick at a -1.5pp gap versus the market — meaning the market actually prices him slightly shorter than the model suggests at 24.0. He is not a value flag this week. The market has him correctly identified as a genuine contender.

But this piece isn’t about value. It’s about identifying a player whose underlying data points — momentum, course fit, skill profile, Augusta history — are all pointing in the same direction at the same time.

That combination is rare. When it happens at a major, it’s worth paying attention to.

The Bottom Line

Fitzpatrick at 24.0 on Betfair Exchange is not a longshot play. He’s a player the market correctly respects. What the ValueFinder data adds is a layer of confidence — the momentum score confirms he’s arriving at Augusta in the best form of his season, his skill profile is one of the strongest fits in the field for this specific course, and his Augusta record shows consistent improvement.

The four ValueFinder model selections for The Masters — including the model’s only automatic value flag this week — are in Tuesday’s report.

This is a separate signal. One of the best ball-strikers in the world, getting better, at a course built for his game.

ValueFinder is a golf probability model in active beta development. Momentum scores are derived from weekly SG snapshots. This is not financial advice.

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The model is 7 selections in, and whilst it’s primary goal is to find players who are undervalued in the market, ROI is sitting at +124.3% on 21pts staked.

Full review in Monday’s preview piece. This week’s selections below.

This week: The Masters Augusta National Golf Club | Augusta, Georgia April 10–13 | $20M purse

The Masters is the most watched, most bet golf tournament in the world — and one of the most narratively distorted markets of the year. Public money floods in on defending champions, sentimental picks, and media darlings. The model runs the same process it runs every week. The data doesn’t care about the narrative.

This week’s model ran against Betfair Exchange prices — the sharpest available market at 5.2% overround — giving the cleanest probability gaps produced to date. ValueFinder has four selections.

Ryan Gerard — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 360.0

Model probability: 1.6%

Market implied probability: 0.5%

Probability gap: +1.1pp

Model fair odds: 73.6

Gerard is the model’s highest conviction selection this week. The model has rated him above his market price consistently across multiple weeks and tournaments. His all-round skill profile fits Augusta’s tee-to-green dominant course DNA. At 360.0 the market is essentially ignoring him. The model disagrees significantly.

The market is pricing Gerard at 360.0, implying a 0.5% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.6% — a gap of +1.1 percentage points. At the model’s fair odds of 73.6, the entry price of 360.0 represents exceptional value.

Collin Morikawa — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 50.0

Model probability: 2.4%

Market implied probability: 1.9%

Probability gap: +0.5pp

Model fair odds: 41.6

Morikawa carries the most compelling Augusta profile in the field outside the top three in the market. His SG:Approach of +0.957 is the highest approach figure among the genuine contenders — Augusta rewards approach play into small, sloped greens more than any other skill after tee-to-green combined. He already has a third-place finish here. The model applies <COURSE_HIST> status. At 50.0 his price reflects the absence of a Masters win rather than his skill profile.

The market is pricing Morikawa at 50.0, implying a 1.9% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 2.4% — a gap of +0.5 percentage points. Model fair odds: 41.6. The model expects Morikawa’s price to drop to around 40.0 by tee-off.

Jake Knapp — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 90.0

Model probability: 1.3%

Market implied probability: 1.1%

Probability gap: +0.2pp

Model fair odds: 69.4

Knapp is a powerful ball-striker whose tee-to-green numbers fit Augusta’s course DNA profile well. At 90.0 the return profile across the three markets makes him an attractive inclusion — top-10 at 22.5 and top-20 at 11.25 offer strong asymmetric returns for a player whose skill profile suits the course.

Maverick McNealy — Betfair Exchange Entry Odds 110.0

Model probability: 1.5%

Market implied probability: 0.9%

Probability gap: +0.6pp

Model fair odds: 60.5

McNealy has been a consistent positive gap player across multiple weeks. This week he carries <COURSE_HIST> status — strong Augusta record fitting a player with elite ball-striking quality and a precise, controlled game. DataGolf’s model rates him at 1.9% — above his market implied probability of 0.9%. Both ValueFinder and DataGolf pointing in the same direction is the strongest signal combination available.

What we’re tracking this week

Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Gerard, Morikawa, Knapp and McNealy shorten between now and Thursday’s first tee time?

Calibration: Eleven selections now logged. The dataset is building. The evidence will speak for itself.

All four selections were logged Tuesday 7th April at the Betfair Exchange prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.

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Two selections this week — Davis Thompson (101.0) and John Parry (201.0).

Both finished inside the top 20. Neither won. At those prices across a full field that is always the most likely outcome — and results at this stage are variance, not signal.

The signal is Closing Line Value.

Thompson entered at 101.0 and closed at 21.0. The market moved dramatically toward him between publication and tee-off — an 80-point compression in price, representing a +3.8% CLV figure. That is the strongest closing line movement ValueFinder has recorded on any selection to date. The market agreed with the model emphatically. The finish didn’t follow. That’s golf.

Parry entered at 201.0 and closed at 100.0. The market halved his price by Thursday. Another strong positive CLV signal — +0.5%.

Running CLV tracker — 7 selections:

ROI Tracker — 3pt per selection (1pt win, 1pt top 10, 1pt top 20):

21pts staked | +26.1pts profit | +124.3% ROI

The top-20 market at longshot prices is where the value compounds. Parry at 201.0 implies 25.1 for top-10 and 12.6 for top-20. A top-20 finish at those prices returns 24.1pts on a 1pt stake. This is why ValueFinder targets players the market underestimates at longer prices — the return profile is asymmetric.

This week: The Masters

Augusta National Golf Club | Augusta, Georgia April 10–13 | $20M purse

The Masters is the most watched, most bet golf tournament in the world. It is also one of the most narratively distorted. Public money floods in on sentimental picks, defending champions, and media darlings. The market gets crowded and inefficient in ways it rarely does on a regular tour week.

ValueFinder runs the same model it runs every week. The data doesn’t care about the narrative.

The Augusta Course Profile — What the Data Actually Says

Augusta National is famous for its greens. The conventional wisdom says putting wins the Masters. The data disagrees.

ValueFinder’s course DNA analysis — built from five years of SG correlation data across 312 player-rounds at Augusta — tells a different story:

Putting is Augusta’s weakest performance discriminator. Ball-striking — specifically tee-to-green quality and approach precision — is what separates the field. The players who win here are elite ball-strikers first. The greens are world-class but they don’t sort the leaderboard the way the narrative suggests.

This has direct implications for how the model weights this week’s field.

Top Players with Classic Masters Profiles

Scottie Scheffler The world number one and two-time Masters champion. His SG profile is the best in the field across every component — SG:Total +2.58, SG:Approach +0.90, SG:OTT +0.71. Augusta’s tee-to-green dominant course DNA fits his game perfectly. Six Masters appearances, one win, 67% top-10 rate. The model applies its highest narrative multiplier to Scheffler this week. The market has him at 6.5 — he is the most complete Augusta profile in the field.

Rory McIlroy Defending champion. Career Grand Slam completed last year in one of the most emotionally charged wins in Masters history. SG:Total +2.13, SG:OTT +0.94 — elite off the tee, which Augusta’s course DNA rates highly. The psychological weight of defending is real. Six appearances, one win. The model applies COURSE_DOMINANT status alongside Scheffler. Market price 12.0.

Collin Morikawa The most underrated Augusta profile in the field. SG:Approach +0.957 — the highest approach figure among the contenders. Augusta rewards approach play into small, sloped greens more than any other skill after tee-to-green combined. Morikawa has a third-place finish here already. The market has him at 29.0 — the model sees a player structurally well-suited to this course whose price reflects his lack of a Masters win rather than his skill profile.

The Model’s Value Flags

The full ValueFinder selections report publishes Tuesday, make sure you are subscribed and following on socials.

The model has flagged two players this week whose blended probability exceeds their market-implied probability by more than 1pp — the Masters threshold given the efficiency of this market.

Check back Tuesday for the full report including model probabilities, market comparisons, and selections.

What We’re Watching

The same two things as always.

Closing Line Value: Do the selections shorten between publication and Thursday’s first tee time? Consistent positive CLV across the season is the primary evidence of edge — not any individual week’s result.

Calibration: Over many selections, do players the model identifies as underpriced outperform their market probability? Seven weeks in. The dataset is building. The evidence will speak for itself.

ValueFinder is a probability model in active beta development. It identifies gaps between model-derived win probabilities and market-implied probabilities. We are not predicting winners — we are finding mispriced probabilities. This is not financial advice.

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Before this week’s selections, a review of week two.

Week 2 Review: Houston Open

Three selections — Ryan Gerard (55.0), Shane Lowry (50.0), Kurt Kitayama (35.0).

Lowry finished inside the top 20. Gerard made the cut. Kitayama missed the cut. No winners — at these prices across three selections that is always the most likely outcome.

The number that matters: 4 from 5 selections have beaten the closing line across the first two weeks of ValueFinder. Gerard entered at 55.0 and closed at 50.0. Lowry entered at 50.0 and closed at 45.0. Kitayama entered at 35.0 and closed at 35.0 — flat, the only selection that didn’t move in our favour.

A note on Nicolai Højgaard. ValueFinder selected him at Valspar in week one based on his ball-striking profile. He made the cut there. The following week at Houston — another approach-dominant course — he finished runner-up. He wasn’t a direct selection that week, but the skill profile the model identified is playing out. That’s what course DNA analysis is designed to surface.

This week’s event is the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio, Oaks Course, San Antonio, Texas. April 3–6. $9.2M purse.

The model has two selections.

Davis Thompson — Entry Odds 101.0

Market implied probability: 1.0%

Model fair odds: 82.1

Thompson has been a consistent presence in the model’s positive gap column across multiple weeks. His all-round skill profile — solid across approach, total game and putting — fits TPC San Antonio well. The course DNA analysis across five years of data shows no single dominant skill at this venue. SG Total leads the correlations at 0.181, with approach and tee-to-green close behind. This rewards sustained all-round quality, which is precisely Thompson’s profile.

The market has him at 101.0, implying a 1.0% win probability. At the model’s fair odds of 82.1, the entry price of 101.0 represents value if the model’s estimate is correct.

John Parry — Entry Odds 201.0

Market implied probability: 0.5%

Model fair odds: 98.8

Parry carries the highest positive gap in this week’s full field output — the model rates him significantly above his market price. His all-round game suits a course that rewards sustained quality across all skill categories. At 201.0 his odds reflect limited tour wins and low profile rather than current skill level. The model sees a player whose true win probability is meaningfully higher than what the market implies.

The market is pricing Parry at 201.0, implying a 0.5% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 1.2% — a gap of +0.6 percentage points. At the model’s fair odds of 98.8, the entry price of 201.0 represents significant value if the model’s estimate is correct.

What we’re tracking this week

Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Thompson and Parry shorten between now and Thursday tee-off? If the market moves toward these selections, the model is finding signals the market comes to agree with. That is the evidence of edge — not whether they win on Sunday.

Calibration: Over many selections, do players the model identifies as underpriced outperform their market probability? This is a season-long question. The accumulation of CLV data and results over the coming months is the real evidence.

Both selections were logged Wednesday 1st April at the Skybet prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.

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ValueFinder’s first two selections were Jacob Bridgeman (25.0) and Nicolai Højgaard (45.0).

Bridgeman finished inside the top 20. Højgaard made the cut but didn’t threaten on the weekend. Neither won — and in a field of 144 players, that is always the most likely outcome for any selection.

What matters more at this stage is Closing Line Value.

Bridgeman entered at 25.0 and closed at 21.0. The market moved significantly toward him between publication and tee-off — a strong positive CLV signal. Højgaard entered at 45.0 and closed at 41.0 — a smaller but still positive move in the right direction.

Both selections beat the closing line. Over a large sample, consistently beating the closing line is the primary evidence of a model with genuine edge. Week one is one data point. But it’s the right data point.

This week: Houston Open Texas Children’s Hospital Houston Open | Memorial Park Golf Course, Houston, Texas March 27–30 | $9.2M purse

Memorial Park is a demanding, tree-lined parkland course in the heart of Houston. It rewards sustained precision rather than length — players who miss fairways here get punished by tight lies and difficult angles into greens. The course profile from ValueFinder’s historical database is clear: approach play is the dominant skill, with a correlation of 0.571 between SG:Approach and finishing position — the strongest single-skill signal in the model’s course DNA database for any event run so far.

This week the model weighted SG:Approach at 40% — its highest allocation of the season. The selections below reflect that directly.

Ryan Gerard — Entry Odds 55.0

Model probability: 1.8%

Market implied probability: 1.5%

Probability gap: +0.2pp

Model fair odds: 57.2

Gerard ranks second in SG:Approach across the entire Houston Open field. He is an elite ball-striker by the numbers — a player whose iron play consistently ranks among the best on tour, but whose world ranking and market price don’t yet reflect that skill level fully.

On a course where approach play has a 0.571 historical correlation with finishing position, Gerard’s profile is exactly what the model looks for. The market is pricing him as a mid-tier longshot at 55.0. The model sees a player whose primary skill — iron play — is the most predictive skill at this venue.

Shane Lowry — Entry Odds 50.0

Model probability: 1.5%

Market implied probability: 2.0%

Lowry ranks third in SG:Approach in the Houston field. His total game is strong across all components and he brings major championship experience and composure under pressure. At 50.0 he offers each-way value for a player whose skill profile fits Memorial Park structurally.

He is not in the kind of headline form that drives market attention right now — which is precisely why the price is available. The model doesn’t care about recent media narrative. It cares about skill fit to course profile.

Kurt Kitayama — Entry Odds 35.0

Model probability: 1.6%

Market implied probability: 2.4%

Kitayama ranks fourth in SG:Approach in the field. A reliable ball-striker who tends to perform well on courses that reward iron play over raw length. At 35.0 he is the shortest price of the three selections this week — less margin for value than Gerard or Lowry — but his course fit profile justifies inclusion.

What we’re tracking this week

The same two things as always.

Closing Line Value: Do the odds on Gerard, Lowry and Kitayama shorten between now and Thursday tee-off? If the market moves toward these selections, the model is finding signals the market agrees with once it has had time to process the same information. That is the evidence of edge — not whether they win on Sunday.

Calibration: Over many selections, do players the model identifies as structurally well-suited to a course profile outperform their market price? This is a season-long question, not a weekly one.

All three selections were logged Monday 23rd March. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.

ValueFinder is a probability model in active beta development. It identifies gaps between model-derived win probabilities and market-implied probabilities. We are not predicting winners — we are finding mispriced probabilities. This is not financial advice.

Jacob Bridgeman - Entry Odds 25.0

Model probability: 8.38%
Market implied probability: 4.00%
Probability gap: +4.38pp
Model fair odds: 11.93

Bridgeman is the breakout story of the 2026 PGA Tour season. He won the Genesis Invitational at Riviera in February — his first PGA Tour title — holding off Rory McIlroy after building a six-shot lead through the third round and leading the field in strokes gained putting. He followed that with four top-10 finishes in 2026 including a T5 at The Players Championship last week, where he was a perfect 39 for 39 on putts inside 10 feet through the first 44 holes.

He also has direct course history at Copperhead, finishing third here in 2025.

His 2026 season statistics rank first in the field on SG Total. The Copperhead course profile — which the model weights heavily toward approach play, precision iron work, and short-game resilience through the Snake Pit closing stretch — fits Bridgeman's game well.

The market is pricing Bridgeman at 25.0, implying a 4.0% win probability. The model puts his true probability at 8.38% — a gap of +4.38 percentage points. At the model's fair odds of 11.93, the entry price of 25.0 represents significant value if the model's probability estimate is correct.

Nicolai Højgaard — Entry odds 34.0

Model probability: 8.16%
Market implied probability: 2.94%
Probability gap: +5.22pp
Model fair odds: 12.25

Højgaard is one of the most quietly consistent ball-strikers in the game. He came into 2026 with five top-15 finishes in his previous seven starts across the PGA and DP World Tours. This season he opened with a T22 at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open, and at that point led the PGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee. He has two top-10 finishes from 11 measured rounds in 2026, and his SG Total this season ranks second in the Valspar field.

The Copperhead course profile suits him well. The course rewards sustained ball-striking quality and approach precision, with accuracy through tight tree-lined fairways and composure under pressure at the finishing stretch. These are precisely the areas where Højgaard's numbers are strongest.

The market is pricing him at 34.0 — a reflection of his world ranking (No. 52) and the absence of a PGA Tour win rather than his current 2026 form. The model has him at 8.16%, a probability gap of +5.22pp over the market — the largest value signal in the field this week.

Model fair odds: 12.25. Entry at 34.0.

What we're tracking this week

Beyond the result — which is always variance over a small sample — there are two things that will tell us whether this model is working as intended.

Closing Line Value: Did the odds shorten between publication and Thursday tee-off? If Bridgeman moves from 25.0 toward 15.0 and Højgaard from 34.0 toward 20.0, the market has agreed with the model's assessment. That is positive Closing Line Value — a primary measure of edge in probabilistic betting — regardless of where either player finishes on Sunday.

Calibration: Over many selections, does a player the model assigns 8% probability win roughly 8% of the time? This is the long-run test of whether the model is accurate. One week proves nothing. The accumulation of CLV data and results over the coming months will be the real evidence.

Both selections were logged Monday 17th March at the Betfair Exchange back prices shown above. Odds will move before Thursday — always check current prices before placing any bet.

ValueFinder is in active beta development. This is not financial advice.

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